Finding Value in a Busy 11-Game NBA Slate

A higher volume of NBA games means a higher volume of prop picks…isn't that the rule? A modest 1-1 record on my initial player prop blog left me wanting more. Going .500 is torture; trust me, I'm a Hornets fan.

11/15 Props Recap

I must admit, I wasn't expecting a Kelly Olynyk masterclass performance against the Knicks to spoil myLauri Markkanen pick. Watching Olynyk's hair flow in the wind as he beat defenders off the dribble and scored at the rim was not on my NBA bingo card. However, the Kevin Huerter pick was the definition of free money. He cashed the prop with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter and finished with five three-pointers in less than 30 minutes of action. The Kings’ 153 points were the second most exciting occurrence in Sacramento Tuesday night…

I can’t explain why, but I’ma fan of the beam. It’s unique, it gets people talking, and the Kings are decent this year which means they’re allowed to have a little fun. Anyways, let's move forward and chalk up a few more wins for tonight's 11-game lineup.

Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

The surging Boston Celtics visit the New OrleansPelicans in a matchup featuring plenty of offense. There are injury concerns on both fronts, as both Zion Williamson and Marcus Smart are listed as questionable for the contest. Despite these injuries, the total for the game has risen over three points to 230.5 from the opening line of 227. This line moved for a reason and offers a preview of tonight's potential game script.Both the Celtics and Pelicans rank top 6 in NBA team offensive efficiency, and both teams are top 5 in points per game (Boston checks in at #1 in both of these categories.)

(Photo by Brian Babineau/Getty Images)

Jaylen Brown's props piqued my interest when I saw this matchup. I was tempted to play the over 24.5 points, but he's been hovering right around that mark over the last few games.I ultimately decided to go with the 33.5 PRA to try and not put all my eggs in one basket. Let's go through a couple of possible scenarios: Jaylen Brown scores 30+ and cashes the prop with no problem. That's an ideal situation, butI could also see him putting up a stat line similar to 24-6-6, which would once again cash our prop. One week ago, Brown had eight assists against the Nuggets in a game where Boston scored 131 points. In my eyes, their matchup against NOLA tonight could be very similar to the Denver game. There will be plenty of points, assists, and long rebounds to go around, so let's hope the game stays competitive enough for Jaylen to log more than the 23 minutes he played on Wednesday against the Hawks. I’m playing Jaylen Brown Over 33.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists.

Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 2.5 3PM (3-Pointers Made)

This prop is probably the riskiest play I have today. One (minuscule) perk of being a Hornets fan is tuning in to every single game and learning the tendencies of players and coaches. After watching Kelly Oubre for slightly over a season, I can confidently say he's the most unpredictable player I've seen in a long time. One game he's putting up 39 points with ten three-pointers against the Pacers, then he'll follow it up with three straight games shooting 10% from downtown. All of that aside, I found a Kelly Oubre prop that I like for tonight.

(Photo by Icon Sportswire/Getty Images)

There are a few factors that play into this decision. Lamelo Ball re-sprained his ankle and is out for the foreseeable future, which means there are 15-20 shots per game that the rest of the Hornets cast will see. The primary beneficiaries of this are Terry Rozier and Kelly Oubre. Even with Lamelo in the lineup, Oubre attempted 21 field goals against the Pacers on Wednesday. If tonight’s game against Cleveland stays reasonably competitive, I would be shocked if that number is any less than 17.


Another point to bring up is Kelly’s shooting motion. If you’ve watched as much Hornets basketball as I have, you’ll notice he’s 6’7”, has unwavering confidence, and his release point is higher than most players in the league. This man can miss eight threes in a row, jack a 30-footer with 20 seconds on the shot clock the next possession, and not bat an eye. Is it frustrating? Sure, but in a way, I respect it. Couple that with a Cavaliers backcourt that doesn’t start a player above 6’1”, and you've got the perfect recipe for a three-pointer player prop. Give me Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 2.5 3PM tonight in Cleveland.

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 3PM (3-Pointers Made)

Who doesn't love a bonus pick at plus odds? Two days after dropping a 50-piece McNugget in Phoenix, Steph Curry and the Warriors take on the New York Knicks tonight at the Chase Center.The Warriors have officially been banned from teams I bet on after their loss against the Suns, but that doesn't mean I can't take some Curry props (after all, he's the only consistent player they have).

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

The Warriors are playing at home tonight, which makes me feel infinitely better about this play. Curry is shooting close to 45% from three on 11.5 attempts per game this year, and he should have no shortage of looks tonight against New York. The Knicks rank 22in defensive rating and allow the most three-point attempts per game in theNBA. Curry has hit six or more threes in four of his last six games, which is why I’m banking on him to stay hot tonight. While the Warriors have been lackluster at best this season, Steph Curry has been playing at an MVP level which is why I’m playing Over 4.5 3PM at+100.

NBA Prop Blog Record: 1-1