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Just a short six months ago we were placing our futures bets, pondering who was going to come out on top of each division, conference, and eventually the league. We have answers to the first two, and tonight we will know who the, “Best Team” is in the NFL. This will be the most watched tv program of the year, and serves as a worthy finale to a great season.
Just as this will be the most watched programming, it will also be the most bet on. Per the American Gaming Association, 50.4 million americans are projected to bet 16 billion on The Super Bowl. With that much handle, given the 4% house edge on a -110 straight bet, we can estimate that these books will rake in $640,000,000 in revenue, When we consider how many parlays will be bet, we can infer that this number will be even higher. Our job here at KarterKast is to make sure your hard earned money does not factor into this $640,000,000, so here are some of my best bets for Super Bowl LVII.
The Eagles have gotten out to a hot start many times this season, and not just against bad defenses. The NFC East has been the butt of a lot of jokes over the last few seasons, but their defensive lineup is no joke. Dallas had one of the best in the league, and the Giants’ as well as the Commanders’ had defenses that held their own. The Eagles have scores 14+ points in the first half in 15 of their 17 games when Jalen Hurts starts. Given that they have played their division rivals a total of 6 times this year, and the 49ers in the playoffs, this is an astonishing feat. The Chiefs defense on the other hand has not been impressive. It is definitely where they are the weakest, allowing 14+ points in the first half 7 times. One of these times was against the offensively anemic Denver Broncos.
Philadelphia Eagles First Half Team Total Over 13.5
Pacheco has seen an influx in carries in recent games. Over the course of the first 10 games, Pacheco averages 7.5 carries per game. During the last 9 games he has been averaing 13 carries per game, nearly doubling his carries from the first half of the year to the last. Conversely, McKinnon has gone under 23.5 rush yards in 15 games this season including the playoffs. The Eagles have allowed approximately 6.3 yards per reception to RB’s. and I expect to see McKinnon take more screens tonight as Pacheco will see more carries.
McKinnon Under 23.5 Rushing yards
During the regular season, Philadelphia averaged 1 forced interception per game. They have earned a reputation as the best pass defense in the league, and for good reason. There is no question that Mahomes is still feeling discomfort in his ankle, and this will limit his ability to scramble. The Eagles have forced QB pressures on 25% of dropbacks, and I believe that this pressure will force Mahomes to make risky choices when throwing the ball down the field. Given that Mahomes has thrown 4 interceptions in 2 Super Bowl games, it seems he is primed to throw one again on the big stage.
Mahomes to Throw and INT (-104)
You can see all of my picks for the Super Bowl on the Award Winning Action Network App!