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Well, well, well…if you're looking for free money, you've come to the right place. Why is that, you say?
THAT'S RIGHT; IT’S TIME TO GO ON A HEATER IN THE NBA. We had a flawless performance on the last blog, and now I’m in the market for another sweep of the board. Let's dig into some lines I've got my eye on tonight.
The first place I'm looking for value tonight is Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse as theCleveland Cavaliers host the Atlanta Hawks. One underrated trait of finding player props is picking out games that should stay competitive throughout the contest. For example, the Cavs are coming off a total annihilation of an undermanned Heat squad missing Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro. That game proved to be a nightmare for player props, as not a single Cleveland starter played over 30 minutes. Tonight’s matchup should be a different story – the Hawks are healthy, tied for the 3rd best record in the East with these Cavaliers, and I’m banking on this game being competitive well into the 4th quarter.
To the naked eye, Jarrett Allen posted a measly eight points and six rebounds against Miami last night. However, he only saw the floor for 27 minutes and attempted a whopping six shots. I’m marking that stat line as an anomaly due to the script of the game (ass-kicking).
Allen's prop tonight stands at 25.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists. He's averaging 14 points, 11 boards, and a little over one dime per game, which puts him right at that mark. In his last seven games prior to the Heat blowout, Allen crossed over that total six times! His Points+Rebounds prop was 24.5, so I decided to throw in the assists and make it 25.5. I've watched enough Cavs basketball this year to know he catches the ball at the high post and tosses up a baseline lob to Evan Mobley a couple of times per game. Also, the Hawks are bottom six in the NBA in team opponent points in the paint per game. Couple that with the fact that Garland and/or Mitchell (whoever Trae Young matches up on) should be able to get some penetration in the lane and dish it to Allen for a few easy buckets.This matchup should be entertaining, competitive, and feature plenty of offense which is why my first pick tonight is Jarrett Allen Over 25.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists.
Let’s jump right into the second pick…
For the second pick of the article, I'm looking at another star-studded matchup as the New Orleans Pelicans host the Golden State Warriors. Zion is set to return following a three-game absence which should provide a tremendous boost to this Pelicans team. On the flip side, the Warriors are on the second night of aback-to-back after squeaking out a win in Houston against a pesky Rockets squad. Speaking of last night, the victory in Houston marked the Warriors' first road win of the year after dropping their first eight – yikes.
I don't want to overthink this pick. Zion should be fully rested and ready to shred this Warriors' front court. He's scored at least 26 points in four of his previous five games before the injury. Zion also shot close to 66% over that five-game stretch.
Golden State gives up 16.5 second-chance points per game away from the Chase Center, and their defensive rating is a staggering 15 points higher on the road.Translation: they've been out hustled and outscored by a wide margin during away games this season. In addition, their win over the Rockets last night was no easy feat. Curry, Thompson, and Wiggins all topped 35 minutes, while Draymond and Kevon Looney finished with a combined 11 fouls. This game is brewing to be open season for Zion Williamson on the offensive glass and at the foul line.Give me Zion Williamson Over 24.5 Points in his return to the lineup versus this atrocious Golden State defense on the road.
NBA Prop Blog Record: 4-1