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The NBA has been back for almost a month, and the time is right to start blogging some player props for the 2022-23 season. NBA props have been relatively kind to me so far this season; I've hit on 9 of my last 13 prop bets (I got way too excited for the first week of the season). I'm not proud of it, but one of those wins was James Bouknight under 11.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists.
Yeah, I went there. Let's look at a couple of player props that stand out to me on Tuesday, November 15th
The Brooklyn Nets are in Sacramento for a nationally televised Tuesday night matchup against the Kings. Sacramento is fresh off a victory over the less-than-impressive Golden State Warriors, and the Nets are looking to bounce back after a double-digit loss to the Lakers. When I saw this matchup, the first thing I thought was how bad the Nets are at guarding the perimeter. They rank 27 out of 30 teams in opponent three point %, and they've given up the fourth-most total 3-pointers in the Association this year. Two nights ago against the Lakers, they allowed 11 made threes (40.7%) …the Lakers are dead last in three-point percentage. Luckily for us, the player ranked second in the NBA in three-point percentage is on the Kings' roster. That man is none other than starting shooting guard Kevin Huerter.
Shooting 51.1% from deep and averaging 3.8 three-point makes per game makes me wonder why his prop is only at 2.5 made threes. Unless Vegas knows something I don't, Kevin Huerter will be getting plenty of open looks from downtown tonight. He's eclipsed the 2.5 mark in 9 of 12 games this year, and I don't see that trend stopping on Tuesday night against the Nets. I fully expect to hear Ernie, Charles, Shaq, and Kenny talking about the Nets’ defensive woes on the postgame show. Even though I’ve seen it juiced up to -135 on some books, give me Kevin Huerter Over 2.5 3PM as my first official KarterKast prop play.
We're in the midst of my second article this month, and Lauri Markkanen has been the focus of both – I'm just as surprised as you are.
However, I couldn't turn a blind eye to his point total for tonight. The Knicks are squaring off against the Jazz in Utah two days after giving up 145 points to the Thunder in MSG. This leads me to the reasoning behind my pick – the Knicks haven't been able to guard anyone recently. They rank 25 out of 30 teams in Opponent Points per Game, and on top of the 145 (!!!) that the Thunder dropped on them, they gave up 120 points to the Timberwolves and 133 points to the Celtics earlier this month.
Markkanen leads the Jazz with just under 22 points per game this year while also ranking first in field goal attempts and second in free throw attempts per game. Lauri has posted lackluster numbers in his last two games, but tonight is a perfect bounce-back spot at home against the Knicks. New York is also top six in the NBA in personal fouls committed per game, which means Markkanen has a great chance to get to the line even if his shooting stroke isn’t up to par. I anticipate the Jazz will involve Lauri Markkanen early and often in tonight's contest which is why I'm playing Over 19.5 Points.
NBA Prop Blog Record: 0-0