US Open Preview and Picks

The final Grand Slam of the year will be one of the most memorable US Opens of all time. This year's main attraction is that it will be the last time we see Serena Williams play competitive tennis. She is set to play on ESPN tonight at 7 pm ET against Danka Kovinic. She is also playing doubles with her sister Venus Williams. That is where all the media attention will be as long as she is still in the tournament but let's look at some other matches in the opening round, possible men's quarter winners, and Men's and Women's futures.

Quarter 1

In quarter 1, we have the favorite and returning 2021 US Open champion Daniil Medvedev favored to win his quarter at -118. In this group to challenge him is Wimbledon finalist Nick Kyrgios at +275, Felix Auger-Aliassime at +700, and Pablo Carreno Busta at +1400. Nick Kyrgios would be the sexy pick, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Medvedev is the play here.

Russia's Daniil Medvedev returns the ball to Japan's Kei Nishikori during their men's single match at the Monte-Carlo ATP Masters Series Tournament...
(Photo by Valery Hache/AFP via Getty Images)

Pick: Medvedev -118

Quarter 2

Quarter 2 is the most wide-open bracket in the tournament. The American Taylor Fritz is currently tied to be the odds-on favorite with Stefanos Tsitsipas, both at +250. Coming in behind these two are Italian Matteo Berrettini at +400 and Casper Ruud at 9/1. If we are being honest, this quarter feels like just picking a random name out of these four players. I would lean Matteo Berrettini here; he is one of the best hard-court players, and at +250 for Fritz and Tsitsipas, there's not a ton of value.

Matteo Berrettini of Italy celebrates match point during the finals against Cameron Norrie of Great Britain during Day 7 of The cinch Championships...
(Photo by Tony O'Brien/Getty Images)

Pick: Berrettini +400

Quarter 3

This is another widely available quarter, with the Spaniard Carlos Alcarax favored to come out at +125. Behind him is Jannik Sinner coming in at +325, Western and Southern Open champion Borna Coric at +650, and Hubert Hurkacz at 8/1. It's difficult not to pick Carlos Alcaraz here. Even though +125 is not great value, he has the potential to dominate this tournament absolutely. Sinner defeated Alcaraz in the round of sixteen at Wimbledon, but it will be a different result this year if they meet. I understand it is a trendy and easy pick, but sometimes those are the right ones.

Carlos Alcaraz Garfia of Spain lifts the Men's Singles Winner Mutua Madrid Open trophy after their victory in the men's singles final match at La...
(Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Pick: Alcaraz +125

Quarter 4

Besides Serena, the second biggest storyline will be Rafael Nadal going for his 23rd Grand Slam. The sportsbooks have Daniil Medvedev, the favorite at the moment, at +210, with Nadal right behind him at +350. Nadal has some potentially dangerous matchups through his tournament run against Andrey Rublev, Wimbledon semi-finalist Cameron Norrie, and the Greensboro native John Isner. I like Nadal's chances of winning his quarter. If I were to place the best value on a pick, it would be Cameron Norrie at +700.

Cameron Norrie of Great Britain celebrates winning against David Goffin of Belgium during their Men's Singles Quarter Final match on day nine of The...
(Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Pick: Nadal -118 or Cameron Norrie +700

First Round Monday Men's Picks

I have two picks rolling into Monday's men's matches, and no picks on the Women's side today.

Pick: Pablo Carreno Busta -5.5 vs Dominic Thiem

Dominic Thiem of Austria reacts during his Men's Singles quarterfinals match against Diego Schwartzman of Argentina on day ten of the 2020 French...
(Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Thiem is currently 7-0 against Busta, but he has been very rusty coming back from injury. He barely escaped with a win against J.J. Wolf in the Winston-Salem Open, advanced again due to Dimitrov being forced to retire, and got smoked by Jack Draper. Busta will be firing on all cylinders, and this match should be finished in straight sets.

Pick: Nick Kyrgios vs Thanasi Kokkinakis over 37.5

Nick Kyrgios of Australia celebrates winning match point against Filip Krajinovic of Serbia during their Men's Singles Second Round match on day four...
(Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

It's going to be a serving masterclass on display in this one. I expect each player to dominate their serve games, possibly resulting in a couple of tiebreakers. I would not be shocked to see Kokkinakis steal a set in this one.

Picks to win the US Open

These will not be a sexy +3000 pick, but I think playing one of the top favorites gives you an excellent opportunity to win some money here. If you want a long shot pick I would take Matteo Berrettini at +3000 and you may have the ability to hedge later on.

Women's Us Open Future Pick: Iga Swiatek +375

Iga Swiatek of Poland celebrates after winning match point during her Women's Singles semifinals match against Nadia Podoroska of Argentina on day...
(Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Men's US Open Champion Pick: Rafael Nadal +350

Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates with the championship trophy during the trophy presentation ceremony after winning his Men's Singles final match...
(Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

I believe Nadal will grab his 23rd Grand Slam title this year, defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals and defeating Daniil Medvedev in the final.